observerОбозреватель-ObserverОбозреватель–Observer2074-2975Институт стран СНГobserver-95Research ArticleПолитологияPolitical sciencesФинляндия и Швеция на пути в НАТОFinland and Sweden on the way to NATOДаниловД. А.DanilovD.

Данилов Дмитрий Александрович – кандидат экономических наук, руководитель отдела европейской безопасности, ведущий научный сотрудник

Danilov Dmitry А. – PhD in Economics, Head of the Department for European Security Studies, Leading Research Fellow

dm.danilov@mail.ruИнститут Европы РАНРоссияInstitute of Europe RASRussian Federation20222405202405-62739Copyright © Данилов Д.А., 20242024Данилов Д.А.Danilov D.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.observer-journal.ru/jour/article/view/95

Статья посвящена одной из самых актуальных тем современной европейской политики – вступлению Финляндии и Швеции в НАТО. Автор рассматривает подачу заявок на вступление в контексте развития партнёрства этих внеблоковых государств как с НАТО, так и в рамках Северного оборонного сотрудничества (НОРДЕФКО). Анализируются различные проблемы безопасности, связанные с отказом двух стран от внеблокового статуса.

The article is devoted to one of the most acute issues of modern European politics – the process of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The author examines their membership application in the context of forging partnerships between these non-aligned states both with NATO and within the framework of the Northern Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO). Various security dilemmas induced by the two countries’ non-bloc status turndown are analyzed.

ФинляндияШвециявнеблоковый статусНАТОНОРДЕФКОгарантии безопасностиРоссияспецоперацияFinlandSwedennon-alignmentNATONORDEFCOsecurity guaranteesRussiaspecial operationReferencesПлевако Н. С. Шведский и финский нейтралитет. В прошлом? // Научноаналитический вестник Института Европы РАН. 2022. № 2. C. 24–31.Plevako N. S. SHvedskij i finskij nejtralitet. V proshlom? // Nauchno-analiticheskij vestnik Instituta Evropy RAN. 2022. № 2. S. 24–31Хультквист о российской угрозе: мы должны двигать наши позиции вперёд // Dagens Nyheter. Швеция // ИноСМИ. 2019. 15 января // URL: https://inosmi.ru/20220419/rossiyane-253855041.htmlHul’tkvist o rossijskoj ugroze: my dolzhny dvigat’ nashi pozicii vperyod // Dagens Nyheter. SHveciya // InoSMI. 2019. 15 yanvarya // URL: https://inosmi.ru/20220419/rossiyane-253855041.html]Шведский генерал: «Против России мы не продержимся и нескольких дней» // Комсомольская правда. 2013. 5 февраля // URL: https://www.kp.ru/daily/26026/2945488/?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.ru%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Ftext%3DSHvedskij general: «Protiv Rossii my ne proderzhimsya i neskol’kih dnej» // Komsomol’skaya pravda. 2013. 5 fevralya // URL: https://www.kp.ru/daily/26026/2945488/?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fyandex.ru%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Ftext%3DBergquist M., Heisbourg F., Nyberg R., Tiilikainen T. Arvio suomen mahdollisen. natojäsenyyden.vaikutuksista, 2016 // URL: https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/79159/IP1601374_UM_Nato-arvioFI_13371.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=Bergquist M., Heisbourg F., Nyberg R., Tiilikainen T. Arvio suomen mahdollisen. natojäsenyyden.vaikutuksista, 2016 // URL: https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/79159/IP1601374_UM_Nato-arvioFI_13371.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=Cold Response 2022 // Forsvaret. 1. April 2022 // URL: https://www.forsvaret.no/en/exercises-and-operations/exercises/cr22Cold Response 2022 // Forsvaret. 1. April 2022 // URL: https://www.forsvaret.no/en/exercises-and-operations/exercises/cr22Dahl A.-S. NORDEFCO and NATO: “Smart Defence” in the North? // NATO Defense College. Rome: Research Division. Research Paper. 2014. № 101. – 12 р.Dahl A.-S. NORDEFCO and NATO: “Smart Defence” in the North? // NATO Defense College. Rome: Research Division. Research Paper. 2014. № 101. – 12 р.Finland is hurtling towards NATO membership // The Economist. April 16th 2022 // URL: https://www.economist.com/europe/finland-is-hurtling-towards-natomembership/21808705Finland is hurtling towards NATO membership // The Economist. April 16th 2022 // URL: https://www.economist.com/europe/finland-is-hurtling-towards-natomembership/21808705Finland’s PM says NATO membership is «very unlikely» in her current term // Reuters. January 20, 2022 // URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlandspm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/Finland’s PM says NATO membership is «very unlikely» in her current term // Reuters. January 20, 2022 // URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlandspm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/Lehto E., Kauranen A. Finland’s PM says NATO membership is «very unlikely» in her current term // Reuters. 2022. January 19 // URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-herwatch-2022-01-19/Lehto E., Kauranen A. Finland’s PM says NATO membership is «very unlikely» in her current term // Reuters. 2022. January 19 // URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-herwatch-2022-01-19/Nordic Defence Cooperation Vision 2025. NORDEFCO. 2018 // URL: https://www.nordefco.org/Files/nordefco-vision-2025-signed.pdfNordic Defence Cooperation Vision 2025. NORDEFCO. 2018 // URL: https://www.nordefco.org/Files/nordefco-vision-2025-signed.pdfNordic ministers respond to Russian ’aggression’ // The Local. 2015. 10 April // URL: http://www.thelocal.se/20150410/defence-ministers-respond-to-RussianaggressionNordic ministers respond to Russian ’aggression’ // The Local. 2015. 10 April // URL: http://www.thelocal.se/20150410/defence-ministers-respond-to-RussianaggressionPrime Minister signs new assurances to bolster European security: 11 May 2022 // Prime Minister’s Office // URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/primeminister-signs-new-assurances-to-bolster-european-security-11-may-2022Prime Minister signs new assurances to bolster European security: 11 May 2022 // Prime Minister’s Office // URL: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/primeminister-signs-new-assurances-to-bolster-european-security-11-may-2022Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Sauli Niinistö of Finland // The White House. Statements And Releases. January 18, 2022 // URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/18/readout-ofpresident-bidens-call-with-president-sauli-niinisto-of-finland/Readout of President Biden’s Call with President Sauli Niinistö of Finland // The White House. Statements And Releases. January 18, 2022 // URL: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/18/readout-ofpresident-bidens-call-with-president-sauli-niinisto-of-finland/Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with Klaus Korhonen (ambassador of Finland accredited to NATO) and Axel Wernhoff (ambassador of Sweden accredited to NATO). 18 May. 2022 // URL: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_195472.htmRemarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg with Klaus Korhonen (ambassador of Finland accredited to NATO) and Axel Wernhoff (ambassador of Sweden accredited to NATO). 18 May. 2022 // URL: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_195472.htmSmur T. Russian Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) capabilities - implications for NATO // Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego. 27 November 2016 // URL: https://pulaski.pl/en/russian-anti-access-area-denial-a2ad-capabilities-implications-fornato/Smur T. Russian Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) capabilities - implications for NATO // Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego. 27 November 2016 // URL: https://pulaski.pl/en/russian-anti-access-area-denial-a2ad-capabilities-implications-fornato/UK pledges to back Sweden and Finland against Russian threats // The Guardian. May 11, 2022 // URL: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/11/uk-pledges-to-back-sweden-and-finland-against-russian-threats-natoUK pledges to back Sweden and Finland against Russian threats // The Guardian. May 11, 2022 // URL: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/11/uk-pledges-to-back-sweden-and-finland-against-russian-threats-nato

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.