Global trends in the development of world civilization
https://doi.org/10.48137/2074-2975_2023_2_5
Abstract
On the basis of the analysis of works of the world famous, authoritative researchers (economists, political scientists, sociologists and historians of economic thought) the authors have formulated the basic complex structure of megatrends of the human civilization, which determine the trends of its development.
About the Authors
V. Egorov
Plekhanov Russian University of Economics; RUT (MIIT)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
EGOROV Vladimir G. - Doctor of History, Professor, Director of the Scientific School «Economic Theory» at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Head of the Department of International Relations and Geopolitics of Transport, RUT (MIIT)
V. Shtol
Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
SHTOL Vladimir V. – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
References
1. Anan’in O., Haitkulov R., SHestakov D. Vashingtonskij konsensus: Pejzazh posle bitv // Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 2010. № 12. S. 15–27.
2. Arrigi Dzh. Dolgij dvadcatyj vek: Den’gi, vlast’ i istoki nashego vremeni. M.: Territoriya budushchego, 2006. – 472 s.
3. Attali ZH. Kratkaya istoriya budushchego / per. s fr. SPb.: Piter, 2014. – 285 s.
4. Bodrunov S.D. Konvergenciya tekhnologij – novaya osnova dlya integracii proizvodstva, nauki i obrazovaniya // Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoj Rossii. 2018. № 1. S. 8–19.
5. Brodel’ F. Material’naya civilizaciya, ekonomika i kapitalizm HV–HVIII vv.: V 3 tomah. T. 1. Struktury povsednevnosti: vozmozhnoe i nevozmozhnoe. M.: Progress, 1986. – 622 s.; T. 2. Igry obmena, 1988. – 632 s.; T. 3. Vremya mira, 1992 – 679 s.
6. V logike prirody // Regeneraciya. Prilozhenie № 52 ot 24.03.2020 // URL: https://kommersant.ru/apps/131699
7. Vallerstajn I. Mir-sistema Moderna. V 4 t. T. 4. Triumf centristskogo liberalizma. 1789–1914. M.: Izd-vo Universiteta Dmitriya Pozharskogo, 2016. – 496 s.
8. Dzhabbarinasir H.R. Ekstremizm kak megatrend i vozmozhnye scenarii bor’by s mezhdunarodnym terrorizmom // URL: https://risa.ru/images/12theses/4-5/10-Dgabbari.pdf
9. Doklad Rimskogo kluba 2018. Gl. 3.1. Regenerativnaya ekonomika // URL: https://habr.com/ru/company/philtech/blog/416797
10. Egorova E. Zamykaya krug. Ciklicheskaya ekonomika v mire // URL: https://bellona.ru/2021/10/01/zamykaya-krug/
11. Ekimova N.A. Global’nye megatrendy i novye tekhnologii: vyzovy i ugrozy postindustrial’noj ekonomike // Ekonomicheskie i social’nye peremeny: fakty, tendencii, prognoz. 2021. T. 14. № 5. S. 116–134.
12. Zakariya F. Budushchee svobody: neliberal’naya demokratiya v SSHA i za ih predelami. M.: Ladomir, 2004. – 383 s.
13. Zinov’ev A. Global’nyj chelovejnik. M.: Centrpoligraf, 1997. – 458 s.
14. Karaganov S. My nablyudaem poyavlenie novogo mira v moment ego sozdaniya // Rossijskaya gazeta. Federal’nyj vypusk. 2022. № 242(8890). 26 oktyabrya // URL: https://rg.ru/2022/10/26/osypavshijsia-mir-uroki-na-budushchee.html
15. Karaganov S.A. Ot ne-Zapada k Mirovomu bol’shinstvu // Rossiya v global’noj politike. 2022. T. 20. № 5. S. 6–18 // URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/ot-ne-zapada-k-bolshinstvu/
16. Kvint V.L., Bodrunov S.D. Strategirovanie transformacii obshchestva: znanie, tekhnologii, noonomika. SPb.: INIR im. S.YU. Vitte, 2021. – 351 s.
17. Komyshan S. Megatrendy ili specifika razvitiya otrasli: na chto orientiruyutsya rukovoditeli kompanij? // URL: https://www/eg-online.ru/article/342622/
18. Kostina A.V. O tendenciyah razvitiya kul’tury v informacionnom obshchestve // URL: http://geum.ru/aref/a221-11-ref.php
19. Krastev I. Posle Evropy. M.: Izd-vo Instituta Gajdara, 2018. – 144 s.
20. Lebedeva M.M. Megatrendy mirovoj politiki i ih razvitie v XXI veke. M.: Aspekt Press, 2019. – 399 s.
21. Liotar ZH.-F. Sostoyanie postmoderna / per. s fr. N.A. SHmatko. M.: Institut eksperimental’noj sociologii; SPb.: Aletejya, 1998. – 160 s.
22. Majr P. Upravlyaya pustotoj: Razmyvanie zapadnoj demokratii. M.: Izd-vo Instituta Gajdara. 2019. – 216 s.
23. Makfercon K.B. ZHizn’ i vremena liberal’noj demokratii. M.: VSHE, 2011 // URL: https://id.hse.ru/data/2011/12/06/1271570570/04.pdf
24. Mamed’yarov Z. Era krusheniya mechty. Futurologi schitayut 2020-e gody klyuchevym etapom v priblizhenii tekhnologicheskoj singulyarnosti // Ekspert. 23 dekabrya 2019 – 19 yanvarya 2020. № 1–3
25. Nejsbit Dzh. Megatrendy. M.: AST; Ermak, 2003. – 380 s.
26. Pankratova E.S. K voprosu o sushchnosti i klassifikacionnyh vidah megatrendov mirohozyajstvennogo razvitiya // Vestnik Rostovskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta (RINH). 2012. № 3. S. 31–36
27. Popper K. Evolyucionnaya epistemologiya // Gumanitarnyj portal // URL: gtmarket.ru/library/articles/4708
28. Regenerativnyj kapitalizm // URL: https://future-almanac.com/regenerative_capitalism
29. Rolz Dzh. Teoriya spravedlivosti. M.: LKI, 2010. – 536 s.
30. Sadovaya E.S. Cifrovaya ekonomika i novaya paradigma rynka truda // Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. 2018. T. 62. № 12. S. 35–45
31. Sen A. Ideya spravedlivosti. M.: Izd-vo Instituta Gajdara, 2016. – 520 s.
32. Sen A. Razvitie kak svoboda. M.: Novoe izdatel’stvo, 2004. – 432 s.
33. Toffler E. Metamorfozy vlasti: Znanie, bogatstvo i sila na poroge XXI veka. M.: AST, 2009. – 669 s.
34. Toffler E. Tret’ya volna. M.: AST, 2004. –784 s.
35. Toffler E. SHok budushchego. M.: AST, 2002. – 557 s.
36. Urri Dzh. Kak vyglyadit budushchee? M.: Delo, 2018. – 315 s.
37. Ursul A.D., Ursul T.A. Megatrendy evolyucii obrazovaniya tret’ego tysyacheletiya // Obraz cheloveka budushchego. Kiev: Mezhdunarodnoe filosofsko-kosmologicheskoe obshchestvo. 2013. T. 3. S. 39–95
38. Habermas YU. Filosofskij diskurs o moderne / per. s nem. M.: Ves’ Mir, 2003. – 410 s.
39. Hanna P. Kak upravlyat’ mirom. M.: Astrel’, 2012. – 319 s.
40. Hanna P. Konnektografiya. Budushchee global’noj civilizacii. M.: Mann, Ivanov i Ferber, 2019. – 427 s.
41. Hantington S. Tret’ya volna. Demokratizaciya v konce HKH veka / per. s angl. L. YU. Lapshinoj. M.: ROSSPEN, 2003. – 365 s.
42. Car’ prirody teryaet granicy // Kommersant». Regeneraciya. 2022 № 237. 21 dekabrya.
43. Celi v oblasti ustojchivogo razvitiya – Ustojchivoe razvitie // URL: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ru/sustanaible-development-goals/
44. Cygankov A.P. Global’nyj konflikt pozdnego moderna: logika i predely eskalacii // Rossiya v global’noj politike. T. 20. № 6. S. 10–21 // URL: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/konflikt-pozdnego-moderna/
45. SHakleina T.A., Bajkova A.A. Megatrendy: osnovnye traektorii evolyucii mirovogo poryadka v XXI veke. M.: Aspekt Press, 2013. – 448 s.
46. SHvab K. CHetvyortaya promyshlennaya revolyuciya. M.: Eksmo, 2016. – 285 s.
47. Khramkova E. Skol’ko, na samom dele, megatrendov // URL: PhD/Medium//https://ekhramkova.medium.com/skol’ko-na-samom-dele-megatrendov-ec520e3ccc44
48. Daniel B. The postinductrial Society. N.Y.: Basic books, 1973. – 507 р.
49. Touraine A. The Post-Industrial Society, Tomorrow’s Social History: Classes, conflicts and Culture in the Programmed Society. L., 1974. – 244 р.
50. Frey C.B., Osborne M.A. The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization? // Nechnological Forecasting and Social Change. 2017. Vol. 114. Р. 254–280.
51. The Zettabyte Era: Trends and Analysis. Cisco Public White Paper. N.Y., Cisco, June 2017. P. 5. – 32 р.
52. Cisco Visual Networking Index: Forecast and Methodology, 2016–2021. N.Y., Cisco, June 6, 2017. P. 2. – 17 р.
53. Muhleiser M. The Long and the Short of the Digital Revolution. The Finance and Development Magazine. Washington, IMF, June 2018 // URL: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2018/06/impact-of-digital-technology-on-economic-growth/muhleisen.htm
Review
For citations:
Egorov V., Shtol V. Global trends in the development of world civilization. Обозреватель–Observer. 2023;(2):5-24. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.48137/2074-2975_2023_2_5
Views:
155
Email this article 