Силовой путь объединения Тайваня с материковым Китаем: В контексте новой геополитической ситуации
https://doi.org/10.48137/2074-2975_2022_9-10_5
Аннотация
В статье рассматривается современное состояние тайваньского вопроса в контексте «единого Китая». Уникальное значение Тайваня для Китая обеспечивает его приоритетность в стратегии КНР. Позиция США и других влиятельных игроков региона по Тайваню воздействует на решение вопроса, формируя худший сценарий, т. е. возможность военного конфликта.
Ключевые слова
Об авторах
Н. С. Кулешова
ИСАА МГУ им. М. В. Ломоносова
Россия
Россия
КУЛЕШОВА Наталья Сергеевна – профессор кафедры политологии Востока
Ч. Чжан
ИСАА МГУ им. М. В. Ломоносова
Россия
Россия
ЧЖАН Чэньи – аспирант кафедры политологии Востока
Список литературы
1. Батюк В. И. Индо-Тихоокеанская стратегия США и Евразия // Актуальные проблемы Европы. 2021. № 1. С. 135–153.
2. «Газпром» и CNPC подписали договор на поставку 10 млрд куб. м газа с Дальнего Востока // ТАСС 2022.02.04 // URL: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/13617189?utm_source=yandex.ru&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=yandex.ru&utm_referrer=yandex.ru
3. Итоги работы Банка России 2021: коротко о главном // URL: http://www.cbr.ru/statichtml/file/135044/annual_short_2021.pdf
4. Конуров А. И. Современное состояние и перспективы разрешения проблемы политического статуса Тайваня в свете эволюции позиции США // Вестник МГЛУ. Общественные науки. 2020. Вып. 3(840). С. 83–97.
5. Кульнева П. В. Тайвань как часть экономической стратегии японских компаний в Восточной Азии // Ежегодник япония. 2020. Т. 49. С. 121–156.
6. Политика США в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе: последствия для России. Рабочая тетрадь РСМД. 2019. № 49 / гл. ред. И. С. Иванов. Российский совет по международным делам (РСМД). М.: НП РСМД, 2019. – 44 с. // URL: https://russiancouncil.ru/papers/USA-IndoPacific-WP49.pdf
7. Путин считает, что КНР нет необходимости использовать оружие для решения своих проблем // ТАСС // URL: https://tass.ru/politika/12652281?utm_source=yandex.ru&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=yandex.ru&utm_referrer=yandex.ru
8. th Congress (2019-2020): Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress. S. 1678 // URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/1678/text
9. Australia pledges $28 billion to expand defence personnel by a third Reuters. 2022.03.10 // URL: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australiapledges-28-billion-expand-defence-personnel-by-third-2022-03-10/
10. Countering China is top priority for Japan PM contender Kishida. Nikkei Asia. 2021.04.12 // URL: https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Countering-China-is-top-priority-for-Japan-PM-contender-Kishida
11. H.R.2002 – 116th Congress (2019–2020): Taiwan Assurance Act of 2019 | Congress. gov | Library of Congress // URL: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2002
12. Haass R., Sacks D. “American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous: To Keep the Peace, Make Clear to China That Force Won’t Stand.” Foreign Affairs, September 2, 2020 // URL: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/americansupport-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous.
13. MacDonald S. B. China Has No Intention of Walking Away from Its Claims on Taiwan. The national interest // URL: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-has-nointention-walking-away-its-claims-taiwan-185495.2021.05.18
14. McKinney J. M., Harris P. United states army war college press. Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan // URL: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/vol51/iss4/4/
15. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China. P. 6 // URL: https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF
16. Taiwan Strait: What Is at Stake and How to Prevent a Conflict An interview with David Sacks // The diplomat. 2022.02.24 //URL: https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/taiwan-strait-what-is-at-stake-and-how-to-prevent-a-conflict/
17. Taiwanese Preference for Status Quo Remains Constant Even as Views Global Taiwan Institute Russell Hsiao // URL: https://globaltaiwan.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/GTB-6.15-draft-2-PDF.pdf
18. The Australian Defending Taiwan against Beijing is a must, says Peter Dutton. 2021.11.12 // URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence/defending-taiwan-against-beijing-is-a-must-says-peter-dutton/news-story/ef9dd7fd56515afbdc90021760d1d344
19. The Avalon Project: Cairo conference 1943 // URL: https://avalon.law.yale.edu/wwii/cairo.asp
20. Trading economics // URL: https://ru.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
21. Why Beijing Might Resort to Force | Foreign Affairs // URL: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-03/china-taiwan-war-temptation
22. Xia Ang. The trend and influence of the Democratic Progressive Party’s “One-party Independence” Unification Forum Issue 03, 2021
23. Liu Lingbin. Research on the “National Identity” of Taiwan Youth in the Context of Cross-Strait Exchanges «Taiwan Studies», Issue 5, 2014. P. 13
24. Xiao Zhennan, Shen Xiaomin. The crisis of youth “National Identity” in Taiwan and the Changes in National Concepts in social textbooks. «Taiwan Studies», Issue 6, 2020
25. Taiwan-Japan Public Opinion Poll/Japan Taiwan Exchange Association Linhai Water and Soil Records. Minzu University of China Press. Year 1998
26. URL: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cejp/chn/zrgx/zywj/t62646.htm [Joint Statement by the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of Japan (September 29, 1972). Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Japan]
27. URL: http://www.gov.cn/test/2005-06/14/content_6310.htm [Constitution of the People’s Republic of Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic]
28. URL: http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2005-06/21/content_2602175.htm [Anti-Secession Law (Chairman’s Order No. 34). China Government website]
29. URL: https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASPD15JM0PD1UHBI01K.html 2021.12.01 [Asahi Shimbun Digital. «Taiwan’s Emergency is Japan’s Emergency» Former Prime Minister Abe speaks online at a symposium in Taiwan]
30. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/100334590.pdf [Reiwa 4th Edition Diplomatic Green Book (Diplomatic Green Book 2022). P. 119]
31. URL: http://tw.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0316/c14657-32376221.html [The State Taiwan Office introduced the Sino-US meeting: Yang Jiechi asked the US side to recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue]
32. URL: http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/cbw/202106/20210603069385.shtml [China’s Foreign Trade Situation Report (Spring 2021). Ministry of commerce, people’s republic of China]
33. URL: https://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2022/0325/20771.html [China’s Balance of Payments Report 2021. State Administration of Foreign Exchange. P. 2]
34. URL: https://www.mac.gov.tw/cn/News_Content.aspx?n=B383123AEADAEE52&sms=2B7F1AE4AC63A181&s=69251CE598824916 [Council for Mainland China (Taiwan) Affairs: On the 23rd anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, Beijing renounced its obligations towards Hong Kong, the core values of Hong Kong are gradually being lost, and this affects its international status]
35. URL: https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2020-10-16/480173 [Taiwan Foundation for Democracy Poll: Willing to fight for Taiwan has risen by nearly 80% compared to previous years]
36. URL: http://www.takungpao.com/news/232109/2021/0415/574518.html [Opinion polls show that more than 70% of Hong Kong citizens are satisfied with the effectiveness of the National Security Law. Takungpao]
37. URL: http://news.china.com.cn/2022-02/24/content_78069855.html [General Administration of Customs: Allow wheat imports throughout Russia. Newschina]
38. URL: http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-10/09/content_5641632. htm [Central People’s Government of China. The conference to commemorate the 110th anniversary of the Xinhai Revolution was held in Beijing. Xi Jinping delivered an important speech]
39. URL : http://foreignjournalists.fmprc.gov.cn/ziliao_674904/wjs_674919/2159_674923/200011/t20001107_7950050.shtml [China advocates the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Homepage> Materials> History of Chinese Diplomacy> Review of the History of New Chinese Diplomacy]
40. URL: http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2022-05/09/node_2.htm
Рецензия
Для цитирования:
Кулешова Н.С., Чжан Ч. Силовой путь объединения Тайваня с материковым Китаем: В контексте новой геополитической ситуации. Обозреватель-Observer. 2022;(9-10):5-28. https://doi.org/10.48137/2074-2975_2022_9-10_5
For citation:
Kuleshova N.S., Chzhan C. Analysis of Taiwan’s military unification with mainland China: The context of the new geopolitical situation. Обозреватель–Observer. 2022;(9-10):5-28. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.48137/2074-2975_2022_9-10_5
Просмотров:
62
Послать статью по эл. почте 